Energy and Peak Oil

After much thought and consideration, I have decided to finally change the topic of this blog to “Energy and Peak Oil”.

Here’s the story that has led to this:
I started out as an electric car enthusiast, and came up with the idea of creating a web site for comparing electric cars, which cannot be compared side-by-side with gasoline cars due to their technical differences (range, battery type, maximum speed, etc).

Then I decided to start a blog, so I could write and record ideas that would not be forgotten as I developed this site. I did not think many people would be interested in my blog, but as I was writing mostly for myself and as a way to brainstorm and retain ideas, that was not an issue for me. When in doubt about an idea or topic, I always chose to write.

Well, my blog on Electric Vehicles has had great success, and I say this based on the number of readers it has achieved. I found out that a large number of people are now thinking about alternatives to gasoline (and that surprised me), and that is largely due to the recent increase in the cost of gasoline at the pump.

Another reflection of the surprising success my blog on EVs has had happened in the beginning of March 2008. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer said they liked my blog and wanted to feature it on their web site. This required me to commit to writing at least three times week, but this commitment occurred to me more like an incentive to write more often than a discouragement.

The new blog in the Seattle P-I drew a lot of readers immediately. It’s not surprising considering the great venue they are for readers, thinkers, and people interested in the latest news. I quickly got a lot of acknowledgment and have been contacted by a number of great people: readers and people in the EV community, and people in the Green industry as well.

In the meantime I wasn’t sure what to do with this blog being hosted on www.evdestination.com. I have become comfortable enough with the Seattle P-I blogging software (or blogware) to conclude I do not need two different blogs on electric cars. Also, in my continued research on electric cars and Peak Oil, I have come to the unfortunate conclusion that the world likely will not have much room for electric cars. Electric Vehicles will be a privilege of the few the way things are going. My suspicions have been confirmed and continue to be reassured: the energy crisis we are starting to face now that the cheap fossil-fuel era is over, is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced. And interestingly enough, I love the topic of energy. I feel I have a lot to say about it. That is not to say I know a lot – I have much to learn, that’s for sure. But I feel that I have so much to offer in terms of solutions; it’s as if I have to do some brainstorming so I know what that is first, and then I can present it. I feel I was born to address the energy issue. I love educating myself on how societies extract and use energy, and I don’t mind thinking about it all the time. So this blog is now about Energy and Peak Oil. I think I have much to offer already, and rest assured I’ll continue to learn at a rapid pace as this is a topic I have great passion for, for a reason I cannot explain.

Electric cars are obviously directly linked to the issue of Peak Oil, and both blogs will be referring to each other when appropriate. One reason I have been promoting electric cars is because of their efficiency: they are about 90% efficient whereas with gasoline about 75% of its energy gets wasted by the Internal Combustion Engine. Another factor that greatly motivates me to promote electric cars (and to want one) is the fact they have no tailpipe emissions, meaning they do not have to use fossil-fuels for driving. If electricity from renewables is used to power these EVs, then the depletion of crude oil can be greatly extended. Ultimately there will be no oil left for us to use though, as oil is a finite resource. And until we find a viable replacement and an infrastructure that can be built and maintained without the use of fossil-fuels, I have to think there is no future for electric cars and that at best they will help us transition into the new future of scarce and expensive fossil-fuels.

I am an optimist, and I trust that human ingenuity will overcome this energy challenge so that we can maintain the great quality of life we have in the developed world, and avoid a huge population die-off. I follow the philosophy of Alchemists, who had the power to change lead into gold through the power of Mind. Yet I do believe we live on a planet where natural resources are finite. In combining these two approaches I hope to address this serious and depressing topic of Peak Oil in the most optimistic possible way. My goal is to promote discussions, to have people thinking and proposing solutions while making the necessary lifestyle adjustments at the same time (energy conservation being one).

I can’t emphasize how it is not joyful for me to embrace the belief that there will be no room for electric cars in the future. Electric Vehicles offer so much more power, performance, speed - all things that I love and are at the core of the American culture. But electric cars are complex machines that also require fossil-fuels in their manufacturing process. And all the evidence indicates that world manufacturing capacity has reached its peak, and it will decline alongside of the supply of energy.

“The world is not running out of oil – at least not yet. What our society does face, and soon, is the end of the abundant and cheap oil.” – Colin J. Cambell, founder of the Association for Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), 1998

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” – George Orwell, author of Nineteen Eighty-Four

To clarify.

In one of my earlier posts, I said something to the effect of "gasoline prices are not coming down". I believe this comment made me lose some credibility with some of my fellow friends because they literally interpreted that comment as "gasoline prices will not possibly go lower than the record $3 a gallon that we're currently experiencing".

Well, I don't think I was clear with that comment and so I wanted to apologize and clarify things. Gasoline prices are always going to fluctuate for as long as we have gasoline available and being sold. However, the trend is that gasoline prices will only go up. So in this sense, gas prices will never come down again, as an overall trend. That is to say, over time. I would dare say (and am willing to bet money) that gasoline prices will be higher a year from now than today. And two years from now gas will cost even more. And so forth. This is based on understanding the serious issue of Peak Oil. As supply starts to diminish and demand continues to increase the law of supply and demand determines that gas prices will only go up (over time). Unless some major event happens that changes this trend, such as the unlikely discovery of a major oil field, or a catastrophic natural disaster that wipes out a big portion of the population, thus lowering the demand for oil (or gasoline) by having fewer people consuming energy.

On the same topic, a barrel of crude oil cost less than $25 in 9/11, around $60 a year ago (Nov 2007), and today it's being sold at $96.70.

I understand that oil prices are not determined simply by supply and demand, but largely by market speculation. Still, I think this is a trend. And I say that based on understanding the serious issue of Peak Oil.

I am grateful to Greg Rock for opening my eyes to this issue and explaining in detail what Peak Oil is and how it's starting to and will affect our society and the world at large. Greg is an expert on the issue of Peak Oil, and an active and dedicated individual to seeking and providing solutions to the energy crisis we're starting to face. It was Greg who finally steered me in the direction of conservation also, as part of the solution to the upcoming energy crisis.

To learn more about Peak Oil, search for the term on the Internet, or look for books by Dr. M. King Hubbert. Dr. Hubbert was an engineer and expert in the oil industry who first understood and introduced the term Peak Oil. He correctly predicted that oil production would peak in the United States. What we are facing now is worldwide oil production peaking, at a time when demand continues growing because most countries have economies that are dependant on constant growth.

This energy crisis by the way, is the most serious issue yet faced by humankind.

But my intention today is not to write a scary post. So let me finish by saying that I'll soon be visiting Tesla Motors down in Sillicon Valley, assuming they will welcome me. I should come back with some great news and stories.

- Ricardo Parker

A world without oil (article)

This is an article that was on today's front page of The Independent, titled “A world without oil”.

The article is worth reading, especially for those not yet familiar with Peak Oil. I do think some day all people will realize how precious petroleum is, and we will consider our choice of internal combustion engines for moving cars an absurd way to use our finite oil.

The article says that our coal reserves (coal is a source of energy we’ll likely start relying on more heavily once oil starts becoming scarce) is enough to last 155 years. I believe that number is incorrect. It is incorrect because it does not account for the expected increase in demand worldwide. It is a fact that China, a country that's #2 in coal reserves, is importing coal for their energy needs.

Furthermore, the demand for coal will be much higher once it becomes evident that oil reserves are depleting – something the public has not been warned about.

So I’ll write Daniel Howden (the writer of this article) an email to bring this issue to his attention.

- Ricardo Parker